The Kansas City Chiefs will soon make their way to Tampa, Florida ahead of Super Bowl LV. Football’s premier game is drawing a lot of attention, especially in the sports betting world.
In gambling, a proposition bet or “prop bet” is a bet made on whether something will happen during the course of a game. You can bet on specific players, outcomes and even the coin toss. Some prop bets are a little out there, but others will tell you a lot in regards to what oddsmakers and the betting public expects to happen during the course of the game. So what does the current slate of prop bets from BetMGM tell us about what oddsmakers’ expectations for the Super Bowl?
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are expected to have big days
AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been two of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL this year and the postseason has been no different. Right now, they lead BetMGM‘s prop bets for Super Bowl LV as favorites in a number of different receiving categories. Kelce, for instance, is favored at -140 to have the most receptions with over 7.5. He’s had more than seven receptions in each of his last 10 games. He also broke the NFL’s record for receptions in the AFC Championship Game just last week with 13 catches against the Bills. Hill, on the other hand, is favored at -125 to have the longest reception of the game at over 26.5 yards. He had the longest reception in the AFC title game last week with a 71-yard catch-and-run.
Two touchdown passes is the sweet spot for Tom Brady and possibly Patrick Mahomes
AP Photo/Jason Behnken
Oddsmakers seem to expect that both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will throw exactly two touchdown passes. At BetMGM, Brady is favored at +190 to throw exactly two passing touchdowns against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. For Mahomes, he’s listed as a favorite to do the same at +200. During the 2020 regular season, Brady threw 40 touchdown passes in 16 games. Mahomes threw 38 touchdown passes in 15 games. It’s worth noting, on the non-exact prop bets, Mahomes is favored at -115 to throw over 2.5 passing touchdowns.
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Oddsmakers like the Bucs' run game
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Touchdown Prop Bets Odds
Touchdown scorers are some of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets every year - and this one is no exception. Our analysts break down which bets they're making for first and anytime touchdown scorer props ahead of Bucs-Chiefs. The pick: Over 46.5 yards on the longest touchdown of the game ($55 to win $50) The logic: Both of these teams are capable of big plays, and we want to root for an exciting game. This bet is a fun one because we can cash on Mike Evans or Tyreek Hill breaking free from coverage, a thundering Leonard Fournette score from midfield, or even a. Vegas has set the lowest odds for this TD prop bet with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, each at +650. How the public is betting First TD scorer on DraftKings Sportsbook Mike Evans (+900) Evans is the public’s favorite so far and commands 21 percent of the handle and 19 percent of the handle on first touchdown scorer wagers.
Oddsmakers seem to prefer the Tampa Bay run game to the Kansas City run game. They’re expecting former No. 4 overall draft pick, Leonard Fournette to have a big game in Super Bowl LV. According to BetMGM, Fournette is favored to have more than 11.5 carries (-105), a long rush of over 12.5 yards (-105), 50 or more rushing yards (-100). Perhaps surprisingly, Darrel Williams is the running back for the Chiefs expected to lead each of these categories, but Fournette has better odds to do so for the Bucs.
Chiefs defense will pick Tom Brady
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Tom Brady didn’t have a great end to the second half against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC title game. He had three interceptions in the second half of the game, giving the Packers some life and a chance at a comeback. Well, the oddsmakers have taken notice of this poor performance. According to BetMGM, Brady is favored to throw over 0.5 interceptions at -160. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is actually the favorite when it comes to throwing fewer than 0.5 interceptions at -185. Mahomes only threw six interceptions this season and hasn’t thrown a single pick in the playoffs.
Touchdown Prop Bets Football
On the coin toss...
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While BetMGM isn’t taking prop bets on the winner of the coin toss, they are taking prop bets on what the winner of the toss will decide to do. Right now, deferring to the second half is favored at -550, while receiving the opening kick is +400. When the Chiefs win the toss, they typically defer to the second half, so I’d say this is a pretty good bet if Kansas City wins the toss. It’s worth noting that the San Francisco 49ers won the toss in Super Bowl LIV and deferred.
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