The gambling public is reacting to 2 sets of NFC Wild Card odds for this Sunday in 2 very, very different ways.
In New Orleans, it’s all about the favorite. The Saints were unfairly denied an NFC Championship Game victory last season (or so the legend goes) and in a betting landscape dominated by QB evaluation, no one “evaluates” the visiting QB to have a good chance to out-gun the host signal-caller.
Odds have jumped in Old Gold’s direction since opening.
According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, Las Vegas had 1.247 million visitors in December, down 64% from December of 2019. For the year, there were 19 million visitors, down. The Vikings come in second among NFC North teams with 7/4 or +175 odds to win the division. The Packers lead, though not by much, with 7/5 or +140 odds to take home the North crown.
But as for the other NFC scrum in Philadelphia, Wild Card Game bettors like the underdog – so much that they’ve turned that “underdog” into a minus-moneyline (and point spread) favorite by mid-week.
Here are the spreads for Weeks 1-16 games for the Minnesota Vikings, from Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology. NFL betting odds preview of 2019’s Week 9 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium Backup Matt Moore looked fine in his first start since 2017, but the Chiefs defense still looked bad. Minnesota Vikings +5000: Atlanta Falcons +6000: Chicago Bears +6000: Las Vegas Raiders +6000: Denver Broncos +6600: New York Giants +6600: Philadelphia Eagles +6600: Washington Football Team +6600: Jacksonville Jaguars +7500: New York Jets +8000: Cincinnati Bengals +10000: Detroit Lions +12500: Houston Texans +15000.
It’s clear that the regular season’s overall lesson of parity’s *poof* absence from the picture hasn’t sunk in on a majority of NFL speculators. Instead, they’re thinking about specifics – how a stud OT can help keep a HOF passer safe to pick-apart the Vikings, and how another potential HOF quarterback can potentially overcome a horror-show of injuries.
We’ll focus on our titular match-up for now. Are the New Orleans Saints really a good wager against the spread as an (-8) point favorite in the Superdome?
Who: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
When: Sunday, December 5th, 1:05 PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Lines: MINN (+8) at NO (-8) / O/U Total: (49.5)
Handicapping the Saints and Vikings Against the Point Spread
I wasn’t sure why Green Bay was being discounted as an NFC North contender a few weeks ago, and before considering all of the angles, I was also unsure why the Minnesota Vikings are touted as such a Wild Card loser. The Norsemen check most of the boxes for a strong WC-bid contender, having fought the Pack for the division title, having won at Jerry World and nearly at Arrowhead Stadium, and featuring a pass rush that punished Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers in late fall.
Kirk Cousins has his believers and detractors, but looking at a passer through either lens can distort the handicapping eye. Minnesota’s QB is not “bad,” “flaky,” or a “choker” no matter how many Negative Nancy types chirp about it for attention. If there’s a solid reason to ignore the Vikings as a potential underdog moneyline bet, it’s that Cousins’ club backed-into the postseason with 2 straight losses after facing an inside track to the NFC North crown. That’s a team-wide deal, not just a quarterback deal. The starting signal-caller didn’t even play against the Bears in Wk 17.
But even in the real world where all NFL QBs’ talents are respected, it’s possible to imagine Drew Brees simply out-gunning Cousins in a wild (excuse the pun) game. When a pair of offenses are clicking the better QB usually prevails in the end, like Doug Flutie over Vinny Testeverde back in the day. Sunday’s odds don’t necessarily reflect weakness in the Vikings so much as the multiple ways New Orleans can win. If it’s a tight, defensive battle, New Orleans can win. If it’s a high-scoring track meet in the indoor setting? The Saints’ well-oiled offense will probably pull ahead by 2 or 3 touchdowns, beating the (-8) point spread easily.
Meanwhile, the Vikings must work to limit the Saints’ point-scoring somehow, and that begins with the edge rush. Minnesota defensive end Danielle Hunter has been a sack machine in 2019, though he’ll have the disadvantage of working against New Orleans OT Ryan Ramczyk without a friendly crowd to help.
The Over/Under total opened at (46) which was clearly too low. New Orleans’ defense is a strong unit which has intercepted 13 passes and held opponents to less than 6 yards per pass attempt. Moreover, Sunday’s host defense got the team through a section of the season in which the offense was missing Brees. But the Saints aren’t designed to shut-out competent clubs, just to occasionally gum-up the works and force a turnover from a QB. If the Vikings are held to less than 22 points and Cousins fumbles or is intercepted once, New Orleans probably wins, but the total would still most-likely go over 46. If each QB plays a good game then there’s no way it goes under 50 points. Gamblers have noticed, pushing the Las Vegas total up to (49.5) points since betting began.
The Over/Under market was a better wager on Monday. ATS is still a good idea now.
Minnesota at New Orleans: Prediction and Pick ATS
New Orleans has at least a 60% chance to win by 10 points or more. That’s no negative assessment of Kirk Cousins. He’s a playoff veteran who’ll lead scoring drives, and maybe even take care of the ball. But in the Superdome with a lesser supporting cast on a losing streak, it won’t be enough to overcome Hurricane Drew.
Cousins has rarely been turnover-free in any of the Vikings’ wins over quality opponents in ’19, and his OL was unable to blow the Packers off the ball during a key home game in Week 16. Dalvin Cook’s return will help the Minnesota backfield but he can’t line up and block for himself there, let alone in the roaring din of enemy noise. As Joel Buchsbaum used to say, imagine what happens if each team plays its game.
Take New Orleans giving (-8) ATS on Sunday.
It was a rollercoaster of a season for the Minnesota Vikings in 2020. At one point, the Vikings were looking like a bottom-three team in the league at 1-5. At another point, they were the seventh seed in the NFC Playoff. When the book closed on the 2020 season, the Vikings were out of the playoff and moving into cleanup duty. Offensively, there’s a lot to be excited about; rookie star Justin Jefferson broke records and turned heads. Dalvin Cook had another superstar season and finished behind just Derrick Henry in rushing yards and Kirk Cousins finally came around.
The liability for Minnesota was their defense, which was gashed time and time again. The unit gave up the fourth-most points per game and 10.3 more points per game than their 2019 team (sixth best– the biggest drop in the NFL). It wasn’t the season Vikings fans had hoped for and offseason changes are coming to their roster. Even Zimmer himself was quoted as saying his defense is “one of the worst [he’s] ever had.” With the top-four highest-paid free agents from Minnesota coming from the defensive side of the ball, the 2021 Vikings will have a much different look.
Minnesota Vikings odds
Best Vikings betting site(s)
Vikings prop bets
Prop bets are based on individual performance, typically surrounding players. Dalvin Cook was one of the best running backs in the NFL in 2020, making him a bettor’s favorite with prop bets. For example, Cook’s projected rushing total in the Vikings’ Week 11 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys was 96.5 yards. Those who thought he would rush for 97 or more yards would be the over while those who thought he would rush for 96 or fewer yards would take the under. Cook picked up 115 yards that game, giving those who bet over his rushing total the win.
Search below for Minnesota Vikings team or player props currently being offered at sportsbooks. You can also look around at other teams and players using this tool. Happy shopping!
Vikings futures odds
Futures are long-term bets that can range from an offseason to a full season (or beyond). Team win totals, award winners, and player performance are common futures. For example:
Vegas Odds
2020 Odds to win NFL OROY
- Joe Burrow +220
- Tua Tagovailoa +290
- Clyde Edwards-Helarie +500
- Justin Herbert +1200
This line for the Offensive Rookie of the Year would often be bet before the season starts. Futures allow for bettors to capitalize on players they think are favorites to win awards long before the odds shift away from their favor. For example, Herbert opened with odds of +1200 to win the OROY award after the NFL Draft; his odds shifted and he eventually won the award in December.
Vikings Super Bowl LVI odds
Las Vegas Odds Minnesota Vikings Game Time
The Minnesota Vikings opened with +4000 odds to win Super Bowl LVI. Those odds are relatively middle-of-the-road and are comparable to teams like the Panthers, Steelers, and Cardinals.
Vikings NFC North odds
The Packers clinched the NFC North and the Vikings were eliminated from the division race in 2020.
Vikings win totals
Las Vegas Odds
NFL win totals will be released later this offseason. Keep your eyes on this page for the latest NFL projected win totals.
Minnesota Vikings 2021 schedule and betting odds
Check back for the complete Vikings 2021 schedule along with the opening spreads for every game.
How to bet on the Minnesota Vikings
Moneyline
The moneyline is the simplest of bets, decided by the straight-up winner and loser of each game. Consider the following example:
- Vikings -125
- Eagles +180
The Vikings are considered favorites in this matchup (indicated by -125), requiring a $125 bet to win $100 (plus the initial bet back). The Eagles are the underdog in this matchup, paying out $280 total for a $100 bet ($180 in winnings). How much either team wins or loses by does not matter in moneyline betting, the payout remains the same.
Point spread
Betting on the point spread is determinant on how many points a team wins or loses by. Take the following example:
- Vikings -1.5 (-110)
- Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
In this example, Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points, indicated by “-1.5.” If the Vikings win the game 31-28, the Vikings (-1.5) win the bet and would have a total payout of $19.09 on a $10 bet ($9.09 in profit). If the Cardinals keep the game within two or win outright– say they win 37-34– the Cardinals (+1.5) would win, and the payout would be the same as listed above.
Point total (over/under)
The point total refers to the over/under line set by books. This number projects the total number of points scored in a game and, like prop betting, is bet whether one thinks the score will go over or under the set point total. For example, the Vikings’ Week 5 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks had a projected point total of 54.5 points. Minnesota lost the game 27-26, resulting in 53 total points. Those that bet under the point total would have cashed out that week.
Minnesota’s defense was a liability for most of the season, showing that they were susceptible to being lit up from Week 1. However, outside of a couple games, the Vikings were also capable of piling up points thanks to a trio of weapons in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Theilen. The combination of a lethal offense and vulnerable defense led to Minnesota often seeing higher than league average point totals, often between 48 and 54 points.
In-play and live betting
Sometimes, the most thrilling and rewarding bets are bets made while games are being played. These are referred to as live bets or in-play bets. Odds are ever-changing during games, which would prove to be fruitful for sharp and prepared bettors. For example, if the Vikings (-130) were favored against the Broncos (+175) before kickoff, a payout on a $10 bet on the Vikings to win would win $7.69.
However, say the Vikings fell to a big 24-3 deficit in the first half despite controlling the overall game (due to costly turnovers or special teams gaffes). Odds may swing in favor of the Broncos, who may be a -110 favorite at halftime. Taking the Vikings to come back and win the game could present plus-odds (say, +130). Should a bettor take Minnesota (+130) at halftime and the Vikings pull off the comeback, winners would win $13 instead of $7.69 (plus the initial $10 bet).
This could also be an effective way to “hedge” your bet; say a bettor took the Broncos (+175) in that game, but Minnesota jumps out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and is controlling the overall feel of the game, bettors could hedge by throwing some money down on Minnesota (-210) to return some of the inevitably-lost bet.
Parlays and teasers
You can always string bets together in the form of parlays or teasers. Usually during busy Sundays, bettors can parlay several teams to win or cover against the spread and if all bets are successful, the payouts are multiplied. Teasers function similarly, except they allow bettors to move each point spread to a more favorable line in exchange for diminished odds.
Las Vegas Odds Minnesota Vikings Draft Picks
Vikings 2020 recap
Record: 7-9
Record ATS: 6-10
Over/under record: 11-5
There may not have been a bigger disappointment in the NFC than the Minnesota Vikings; the once-thought contenders fell to 1-5 right out of the gate. Though they managed to finish 7-9 and just a game outside of the NFC Playoffs, Minnesota’s 2020 season felt more like their 6-10 record against the spread. They dropped games to Atlanta and Dallas, and were blown out by the Packers and Saints.
Whether they won or lost, at least the 2020 Vikings were exciting. Their 11-5 mark against the point total was one of the best in the league, with the Vikings routinely getting into shootouts with their opponents. Games like the now-infamous Christmas Day outing against the Saints were Alvin Kamara scored six touchdowns were at the very least watchable. However, the season is over and Vikings fans are ready to move on.
Vikings 2021 offseason moves
Key free agents: Anthony Harris (S), Eric Wilson (LB), Dakota Dozier (LG), Jaleel Johnson (DL), Ifeadi Odenigbo (EDGE)
Draft pick position needs: OL, DL, S
The majority of Minnesota’s free agents to be this offseason come on the defensive side of the football. In response to coach Mike Zimmer’s comments on the unit, it’s safe to assume retaining players like 29-year-old Anthony Harris (due $11.5 million) might not be at the top of the priority list. Guard Dakota Dozier didn’t have the best season (allowed six sacks), but he played every snap of the 2020 season; in his case, availability is his best ability.
At the 12th pick of the upcoming draft, the Vikings have been oft-associated with one player in particular: Michigan edge rusher Kwitty Paye. With offensive line-hungry teams like San Francisco and the Los Angeles Chargers sit just ahead of Minnesota, taking potential targets like Texas offensive lineman Sam Cosmi and Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw off the board. If they are, Paye is an excellent fit for the Vikings defense and gives them a nasty pass rusher that they lacked in 2020.